It’s probably not as discussed as on the home court in basketball and even college football, but NFL teams often have significant advantages at home and responsibilities on the road. A key part of sport is emotion. Even though NFL players are professional athletes who get paid to do their best job, playing well against local fans is actually more important than playing on the road as well.
There hasn’t been a clearer example this season than the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags started 4-1 SU / ATS at home allowing just 7 points per game! However, on the road they allow 22 points per contest, which explains the 1-3 SU / ATS mark on the road. In fact, the offense adds 8 more points per game at home.
The local fans are the ones who, in essence, are paying their salaries. No player wants to give 50% and lose a game in front of the home crowd. Additionally, other factors can influence the performance of a team at home or away. The Chiefs have big fans at home and for years punters have been considering a slightly bigger advantage for the Chiefs at home over the line. Even with a new coach this year, Herm Edwards, the Chiefs have 2-3 SU / ATS on the road, but 3-1 SU / ATS at home.
The Broncos also enjoy a unique home advantage, not just from the big fans, but also from the thin air in the Colorado mountains. Denver players are used to practicing and playing in the fresh, thin air, while some opponents are not.
Another factor to consider is the playing surface. Dick Vermeil built the Rams in the late 1990s with an eye for speed in WR and RB. His extended attack, along with then-offensive coordinator Mike Martz, was based on the speed that he performed best on the artificial pitch at the St. Louis dome. In 2004, the Rams were 6-2 SU at home, but 3-7 SU / ATS on the road. This year they score 26 points per game at home (2-1-1 over total) but one touchdown less on the road (2-3 less). The biggest old show on grass is much less so on grass.
Notice that the Buffalo Bills have been a very different team at home than away from home for the past two seasons. They were a .500 home team last year, but only 1-6 on the road. This year the same is happening, starting 2-2 at home, but 1-4 away. Last season, Buffalo started 3-1 SU / ATS at home, but 0-3 SU / ATS on the road. It’s not just QB JP Losman’s struggles, the whole team seems to pack it away from home.
Take a look at the geographic location of a team like the Seahawks, playing in the Northwest corner of the US in Seattle. A team in a city like that has a longer road to travel to away games, and they’ve already made a long trip to Detroit. Seattle started SU 4-1 at home with a winning spread mark, but 0-4 against the number on the road. That was the case a year ago when they had long road trips to Jacksonville, Washington, as well as St. Louis. The Seahawks started 1-2 Su / ATS on the road and 4-0 at home! Seattle’s offense also continues to play better at home. For total bettors, keep in mind that the Seahawks are 14-9 “above” their last 23 home games total.
The worst visiting team is still the Lions, who allow 33 points per away game (0-4 SU / ATS) and Oakland (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS). The Raiders are averaging just 7 points per away game! They are averaging more than double the points at home with their bed-and-breakfast offense, giving fans at least something to be happy about.